NEWS - Clamoroso al Cibali! Netflix è "tecnicamente in debito". Gli analisti si chiedono fino a quanto potrà reggere con le spese pazze di diritti, acquisizioni, espansione e auto-produzioni. Una delle mosse per risanare, l'avvio dell'operazione-nostaglia "sicura" ("Una mamma per amica", "Arrested Development"...)
News tratta da
Mic.com
Netflix is the largest
paid-subscription streaming site for films and television shows,
boasting
over 75 million subscribers (and countless password-moochers)
worldwide. As many tech sites and consumer guides have pointed out,
Netflix also
happens to host the largest catalog of available content, in comparison
to the remaining "Major Three":
Hulu and
Amazon Prime. But every few
months, user searches for a specific film or show yield the dreaded
"related titles." With
a total revenue in excess of $6.7 billion
reported after the end of Q4 2015, it would seem that Netflix doesn't
have an issue with cash flow. In reality,
Netflix hemorrhages money due
to the exorbitant overhead of licensing titles and marketing expenses.
And yet,
Netflix continues to replace expired titles with others while
also
producing new original content.
How is this business model fiscally
possible?
To be clear, Netflix does use the majority of their revenue to pay studios for licensing agreements. The
Wall Street Journal reported
in 2015 that of the Major Three,
Netflix had planned on designating the
most funds toward acquiring content – more than what
Hulu and
Amazon
had projected on spending, combined.
But the cost of licenses has become an expensive endeavor due to bidding wars with other streaming sites for exclusivity (not
to mention new competition from formerly cable-only channels like HBO
and Showtime creating standalone streaming services). Consequently, more
and more titles disappear, suggesting that Netflix doesn't have the
capital to sustain its breadth of content.
Market Realist reports
that while Netflix did beat their quarterly earning estimates for the
Q4 of 2015 (which prompted the price of their S&P stock to rise),
the company's cash flow was still $276 million in the red, which seems
like a drop in a bucket compared to the overall company debt of $2.4
billion. Market Realist further reports that in order to continue developing the company's newly expanded international market, as well as pledging a proposed $5 billion toward more original content, Netflix anticipates incurring even more debt in 2016 and 2017.
It would seem that Netflix only continues to function due to an
intricate game of selective bill paying; even though Netflix accumulates
a lot of revenue from monthly subscription fees, streaming, DVDs and
monetizing the export of licensed titles to other formats, Netflix's
profit margins are low because they forfeit a lot of said revenue to
overhead, distribution, and operating expenses.
Though Netflix is technically in debt,
the bonds associated with them have a "BB credit rating," meaning the
chances of the company running into issues due to nonpayment are
relatively low. Therefore, whatever cash flow the company does have can
be siphoned into development and infrastructure, going into debt in the
interim but planting seeds for future gains.
In their "Letter to the Shareholder" published in January 2016, Netflix gushed about the critical successes of several new series – Aziz Ansari's Master of None, Marvel's Jessica Jones, 10-part miniseries Making a Murderer – before detailing their goals for the upcoming year.
In 2016, we plan to launch over 600 hours of original
programming, up from about 450 hours in 2015. Beyond the sheer volume of
content, the breadth of our original programming will continue to
expand with current plans for new seasons of 30 or so original series
(including The Crown and The Get Down), eight original feature films, 35
new seasons of original series for kids, a dozen documentaries, and
nine stand up comedy specials.
We are now in our fourth year of
original programming and we are putting special emphasis on shows that
families can enjoy together, including the upcoming Fuller House, new
seasons of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, and Stranger Things. We are also
stepping up our non?English language original productions, including
Marseille, a French political drama starring Gerard Depardieu, and then,
shows from Italy, Japan, Mexico and Brazil. We expect some of these
series to gain fans well beyond the markets in which they were made.
Increasingly,
our goal is to own more of our original programming to allow for
greater creative and business control and to ensure global access to
content.
Additionally, Netflix noted that traffic continued to rise
in comparison to their competition, suggesting there was an audience for
the company's original programming despite their dissimilar genres and
serial formats.
In "Netflix Movies: Producers Weigh Hidden Downsides," Hollywood Reporter's
Pamela McClintock writes about Netflix's acquisition strategy through
the lens of two recently commissioned feature-length war dramas (Cary
Fukunaga's already-uploaded Beasts of No Nation, and Richie Smyth's Jadotville,
currently in post-production), as well as multi-title deals with Adam
Sandler (for four feature-length comedies) and Leonardo DiCaprio (for a
documentary series on the environment). Although Netflix will shell out
what seems to be handsome premiums for the distribution rights of a
film, they are usually lump sums without any offer of backend, which is
generally where most profits are made should a project be successful.
The ramifications of Beasts of No Nation's release,
simultaneously available for streaming on Netflix and screening in
theaters with a limited release, was unusual, to say the least. As
CinemaBlend reports,
Netflix "broke the sacred 90-day window that's typically observed from a
film's theatrical release before moving to other mediums," which led to
"theater chains like Regal, AMC, Cinemark and Carmike to go so far as
to boycott the film altogether."
A person close to the film told McClintock that she and her
producers at Participant Media debated "endlessly" before accepting the
deal, saying, "Netflix wants to break new ground with this film and
create a new paradigm for watching specialty movies" before conceding
that "It was a buyout.
However, the team behind Jadotville were a bit more
optimistic because the agreement with Netflix helped alleviate the
typically labyrinthine finance structure associated with a
feature-length film.
"The traditional 'independent' model would have meant an
interparty structure of seven or eight individual parties wrapped up in a
banking deal and the ever possible potential for differing creative
objectives," Jadotville producer Alan Moloney told Hollywood Reporter. "This way, we have one source of financing and a very supportive creative partner. What's not to love?"
His optimism toward the partnership with Netflix is key, ostensibly referring to Netflix's good brand. Many directors/producers
will "forfeit" any perceived revenue in order to associate with a
company that played an important role in the "Golden Age of Television"
(but in many ways jumpstarted the era of "Peak TV"). And if nothing
else, at least there would be a receptive audience for a product that
might be otherwise niche.
As a side note:
Netflix can and will purchase the rights to older, syndicated shows in bulk
because they are usually sold at a cheaper rate. Expanding their
catalog at an economical rate continues to give consumers more bang for
their buck, but it also gives the company the opportunity to
bank on
nostalgia; reboots of
Arrested Development, and
Wet Hot American Summer have
already been uploaded to Netflix's library. Elsewhere, purchasing
rights to an entire series can contribute to a runaway nostalgia effect;
Netflix's ordering of a
Gilmore Girls miniseries reboot stemmed
from public interest, the buzz of which undoubtedly started after
Netflix uploaded the original series in its entirety to its catalog.
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