NEWS - Clamoroso al Cibali! Netflix ammazza la tv: è la causa del 50% della fuga dal piccolo schermo Usa. Nel 2020 prevista una crescita del 14%...
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Netflix
is leaving an indelible mark on the TV biz — and while the streaming
giant isn’t dealing a fatal blow to the industry, it is seriously
cutting into traditional television ratings. In 2015,
Netflix accounted for about half of the overall 3%
decline in TV viewing time among U.S. audiences, according to a new
study by Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson. The analyst calculated
that based on an estimate that
Netflix’s domestic subs streamed 29
billion hours of video last year (
Netflix said members worldwide watched 42.5 billion hours in 2015). That would represent 6% of total American live-plus-7 TV viewing reported by Nielsen (up from 4.4% in 2014).
Moreover, Nathanson predicts
Netflix’s total streaming hours as a
percentage of TV viewing will continue to rise to about 14% by
2020. “Currently,
Netflix is a source of industry pain, but not
necessarily a cause of industry death,” he wrote in the note.
Executives at media conglomerates are now viewing Netflix as a
growing threat. Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes, who once compared Netflix
to the “Albanian army,” last fall said that the company may pull back on licensing TV content to SVOD services.
But
not all TV networks are suffering from the rise of Netflix and
other streaming-video services, Nathanson noted. Total viewing of
networks from Time Warner, Scripps Networks Interactive,
AMC Networks
and Discovery Communications rose in 2015. A+E Networks’ viewing hours
declined 15%, Viacom fell 13%, and NBCUniversal and Disney each dropped
5% overall.
In comparing TV viewing of Netflix vs. non-Netflix households,
broadcast networks took the biggest hit in 2015.
CBS viewing
among Netflix subs was 42% lower than non-subs, with
Fox at -35%,
ABC at
-32% and
NBC at -27%, according to Nathanson’s analysis.
Meanwhile, viewing time of Disney’s networks last year was 11% higher
in Netflix homes versus non-Netflix homes. Viacom saw a “modest” 5%
year-over-year drop in Netflix homes; in that case, “it is unclear if
this is as a result of viewership which has already been negatively
impacted by SVOD services in prior years, or if the company’s
younger-skewing viewers are switching back and forth more easily to
watch both linear television and SVOD services,” Nathanson wrote.
Based on viewing time,
Netflix in 2015 was bigger than smaller cable
programmers like A+E and AMC,
but not as large as the seven biggest
conglomerates (NBCUniversal, Disney, Viacom, Time Warner, 21st Century
Fox, Discovery and CBS).
One caveat on the analysis: Nielsen’s Live+7 excludes online and
mobile viewing on TV networks’ sites and apps. But Nielsen hours-viewed
numbers adjust for co-viewing, whereas Netflix’s reported data is per
household. According to Nathanson, that means Netflix per-person viewing
is underrepresented relative to Nielsen Live+7; thus, the analyst
assumes the two factors largely cancel each other out.
Other studies have compared Netflix’s viewing to traditional TV. The
service was on track to attract a larger 24-hour audience than each of
the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC) some time in 2016,
per an analysis last summer by FBR Capital Markets.
As of the end of 2015,
Netflix reported 74.76 million streaming customers worldwide, including 44.74 million in the U.S.
One big challenge for Netflix now will be increasing its reach among
older consumers, according to Nathanson, an age group that watches more
traditional TV than younger demos. SVOD penetration among those 35-44 is
60%, then tapers off to 54% for the 45-54 cohort, 37% for 55-64 and 23%
for those 65-plus.
Nathanson’s note Thursday, “
Is Netflix Killing TV?,” is an update to one the analyst published last April.