NEWS - Clamoroso al Cibalix! Netflix supererà ABC, CBS, FOX e NBC nel 2016!
News tratta da "
Variety"
If
Netflix
were a Nielsen-rated TV network, the No. 1 streaming service would,
within a year, attain a larger 24-hour audience than each of the major
broadcast networks —
ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC — according to a Wall Street
analyst firm.
To be clear, the analysis by FBR Capital Markets is not
apples-to-apples. One major caveat: Nielsen TV ratings cover, at most,
up to seven days of VOD and DVR viewing — and exclude
online-video views, which networks say are an increasing part of the
pie. Moreover, TV networks provide a different blend of content, such as
live sports, that Netflix doesn’t. And anyway,
Netflix doesn’t care
about “ratings” of individual shows, given that it doesn’t sell ads and has steadfastly refused to disclose anything but general data about viewing.
But according to FBR analysts Barton Crockett and Chase White, the
comparison is meant to be a barometer of the relative popularity of
Netflix to traditional TV nets. The trajectory of Netflix users’ hours
spent viewing illustrates the company’s growing market power, not just
in the U.S. but internationally, they said.
The data highlights “
Netflix’s domestic rise and dominance,
bolstering confidence in its ability to grow subs and charge more
domestically and to replicate its success in key markets around
the world,” the analysts wrote in a research note.
Here’s how the analysts did the math:
Netflix said users streamed
about 10 billion hours of video in Q1 2015, equating to nearly
two hours
per subscriber per day. The FBR analysts calculated what Netflix’s
Nielsen rating would be by dividing the two-hour figure by 24 hours,
then multiplying that by the number of Netflix U.S. subs as a percentage
of households.
That would give Netflix an overall rating in Q1 of 2.6, on par with
ABC and NBC. And given that
Netflix is growing usage at a
compound annual growth rate of more than 40% — while broadcasters are on
average declining — that means the streamer will have a larger 24-hour
audience in one year than any broadcast network.
Another data point called out by FBR’s analysts: When consumers were
asked if they had to choose between Netflix and a cable or satellite TV
subscription, 57% picked Netflix, with 43% opting for pay TV, according
to a survey FBR conducted with ClearVoice Research in April.
“
Netflix subscribers clearly like it more than pay TV, which we see
as arguing for pricing leverage, since pay TV, on average, costs over
$80 per month,” the analysts wrote, citing Netflix’s average $8 price
point.
There’s no doubt
Netflix will continue to flex its muscles — building
on its
62 million-plus worldwide subscriber base as of the end of
March. The only question is how much, and how quickly, the company will
disrupt the current TV biz.
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